Felix Meller’s 10 predictions for the future of executive search

Our Managing Director looks ahead and offers his take on how AI could change how search firms operate.

With the start of the year came the usual bad weather, the ever hopeful, soon-to-be-abandoned resolutions, and the now traditional 10-year predictions. One of my favourites came from my friends at VC fund Felix Capital (and not just because I share a name with the company). Their  post ‘10 Themes for the Next 10 Years’ featured some tantalising predictions about the role that AI may come to play in how companies grow and culture develops in the years to come.

Felix Capital’s talk about new tools, extreme personalisation, and the rise of the ‘agentic lifestyle’, among other big calls, got me thinking about how the executive search landscape might change in the future, largely as a result of AI. I’ve had some fun putting together some predictions, which range from the likely – indeed, a few are almost commonplace already – to others that are a little more out there. I hope you enjoy reading them, and that they give you food for thought.

Without further ado, here are my 10 predictions for how AI and digital transformation will shake up my sector in the near future:

1.      Total pay transparency

As more and more companies embrace AI, data points will increase, allowing for more accessible information around salaries, bonuses and incentive schemes. This is already the case for executives at publicly listed businesses in many countries but will become completely normal for every job in every company around the world. The same will be true for company org charts; research in these areas should become more straightforward and key details easier to access. It could well force a shift in approach from companies that prefer to be coy about such topics, not least if potential candidates can reach this information with ease too.

2.      Video components on CVs

You may well have had to submit a video, or more than one, as part of a job application before – but have you thought to include one as part of your CV? Probably not, though the way things are going, I don’t think we’re too far away from that. Just as photographs on CVs are de rigueur in some parts of the world, I believe that it’s only a matter of time before embedding video components on resumes is expected in certain markets. How widespread it becomes, and whether there will be any pushback, is another story…

3.      AI coaches on hand during interviews

We’ve already heard reports about companies using AI to filter applicants, as well as virtual recruiters to conduct early-stage interviews. But AI assistants will soon be available to add to your own video interviews to provide live advice and feedback. I expect this to be a feature for both candidates and interviewers. Giving everyone the same set of conditions and assistance could help level the playing field and drive efficiency or it could badly nullify insights from video interview processes – like having a calculator in a mental arithmetic exam.

4.      In-person meetings will come back with a vengeance

Supposing such developments do come to pass, it won’t be without a backlash. Whether it’s because of teething issues with virtual assistants, the difficulty of knowing how people respond without help from AI, or on ethical grounds, I imagine that there will be a renewed primacy placed on meeting candidates in person. I can see some businesses rebelling and foregoing virtual processes outright, instead choosing a more intensive, human-centred approach. Could these different ways of working split the industry? It’s certainly possible.

5.      Global universal basic income

If you’re still reading, bear with me as I arrive at another prediction that is yet to pass – though one which has certainly been discussed much more widely than AI assistants forming part of the interview process.

Discussions about universal basic income (UBI) seem to have gathered pace across the political spectrum recently in response to the AI boom. Proponents argue that UBI would help protect against rising costs, as well as job losses incurred through automation, though critics tend to dismiss the idea of guaranteed, non-means-tested payment as economically unviable. I’d like to believe that we might see some form of UBI in my lifetime – though I expect the rollout will look vastly different across the globe.

What does this mean for executive search? When people no longer work purely out of financial necessity, companies can’t rely on hierarchy or pay alone to attract and retain talent, so leadership quality will become a direct driver of performance. Boards will place greater weight on credibility, culture-building and the ability to persuade high-autonomy professionals to follow. That shifts hiring from ’who has done the job before’ to ’who can actually lead humans who have options’, increasing the cost of a bad hire and therefore the value of trusted intermediaries. In practice, volume recruitment weakens, but retained senior search and advisory strengthens, because organisations need help convincing exceptional people to join – not just identifying them.

6.      Digital avatars that do the interview for you

10 years ago this would have been pure science fiction, though like many seemingly far-fetched points in this article, I’ve taken inspiration for this one from real life. Lately, I was struck to learn about how the influencer Khaby Lamé sold his holding company for $975 million – especially since the creation of an AI ‘digital twin’, using his biometrics for content, was included as part of the deal. Now, I’d certainly be tempted to hand over my fingerprints for that kind of money, but only if it meant I could use my digital twin to hold interviews for me, of course...

This seems to me to be a logical extension of my earlier prediction about video elements on CVs. Imagine if you had a digital avatar, programmed with your skills and experience, that could engage in hundreds or even thousands of job interviews per day on your behalf, with a screened funnel of second-stage invitations sent to you daily or weekly as well. It would certainly speed up the job search, and keep AI interview assistants on their toes, too! The crazy thing about this prediction is it is already happening.

7.      Certification bodies will be necessary

Of course, we can’t have unchecked digital avatars acting supposedly on our behalf. If this part of my brave new predictions comes true, I imagine it will also lead to the creation of various authorisation boards to verify the identity and veracity of your AI counterpart. Think of it as a blue tick for your digital avatar, though hopefully subject to more rigorous testing than certain online platforms ask for these days.

8.      Ads for job vacancies will be a thing of the past

Honestly, the way things are going, that might not be such a bad development. Automated applications are flooding hiring managers’ inboxes, making it impossible to review these without also using automation, thus defeating the point of the advert in the first place. Headhunting will emerge as the only efficient way to recruit top talent.

9.      Sales skills and interpersonal relationships will be ever more valued

In such an environment, reaching talent the old-school way – through persistence, nous, and great communication – will prove invaluable. The only difference may be around screening. After all, your phone can now block people you don’t know (or don’t want to know) from contacting you. In a world of digital avatars, you could well be choosy about who you accept outreach from; AI will do the screening for you.

10. Executive search teams will be selected in the same way architecture studios are these days

That is, it will come down not just to placements that firms have made, but the leadership teams they’ve crafted as a whole. Academic testing, psychometrics, and other technologies will proliferate in assessment – but ultimately, human insight into what makes a cohesive and high-functioning leadership team will prove to be the ultimate commodity in executive search. I’ve seen more than a few people predict that recruitment, specifically search, will be AI-resilient, if not an AI-proof sector – I hope, and believe, they’re right!

My biggest prediction, however, isn’t included above

I hope you’ve enjoyed the results of my time spent hunched over the crystal ball, though even if and when tasks we take for granted now become automated and AI-heavy in the future, I suspect that the most radical thing that will change will be…nothing much at all.

I expect that the concerns and approaches inherent in finding great candidates, giving feedback, providing open communication – and, most importantly, having the personal touch and insight to explain why your client should hire this person instead of that one –  will look largely the same, no matter the job landscape. How we go about it might be different, but ultimately I think that what makes a great headhunter will continue to be relevant, whether or not AI shakes up working life in the way it’s been predicted to. Just don’t quote this article at me if my digital twin goes rogue and takes over my online presence…

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